Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -1600 WCU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -19.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -15.3 (-11.3) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -14.2 (-10.2) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -13.6 (-9.6) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -15.0 (-11.0) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UNCG 85 – 82 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#143) | -15.2 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | -2.65 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#159) | -3.36 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#136) | 0.414 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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