Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -450 TXST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -8.8 (+4.2) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -8.2 (+4.8) | 140.5 (+2.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.9 (+5.1) | 141.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.7 (+5.3) | 140.7 (+2.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -4.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#189) | -1.18 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#161) | -1.11 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#174) | 0.462 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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