Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +180 TROY -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -6.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.2 (+15.2) | 143.4 (-7.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.3 (+16.3) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.7 (+15.7) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.3 (+15.3) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXST 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#269) | 2.3 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#214) | 0.79 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#226) | 0.47 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#240) | 0.561 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.