Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +200 TROY -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.5 (+5.5) | 142.3 (+18.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.1 (+6.1) | 142.4 (+18.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.0 (+5.0) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.2 (+5.2) | 142.4 (+18.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#225) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | 0.34 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#213) | 0.63 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.530 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.