Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -300 TXST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -7.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.2 (-7.2) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.5 (-7.5) | 133.9 (+13.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.2 (-6.2) | 133.9 (+13.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.1 (-7.1) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXST 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#108) | -0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#97) | -0.18 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#110) | -0.40 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#92) | 0.493 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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