Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +100 TROY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -2.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.9 (-3.1) | 138.6 (+4.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.4 (-1.6) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.5 (-3.5) | 140.7 (+2.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.1 (-2.9) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXST 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#198) | 3.3 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#211) | 0.27 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#230) | 0.45 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.527 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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