Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -250 TXST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.5 (-9.5) | 141.5 (+0.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.1 (-11.1) | 141.6 (+0.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.4 (-9.4) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.5 (-9.5) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXST 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#129) | -2.6 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#145) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | -0.26 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#121) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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