Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -425 TXST N/A |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +20 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -14.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.0 (+10.0) | 146.1 (+33.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -10.9 (+9.1) | 148.5 (+31.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.7 (+9.3) | 150.5 (+29.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.8 (+9.2) | 150.6 (+29.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TXST 82 – 79 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#149) | -8.6 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#105) | -0.61 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#142) | -0.88 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#68) | 0.432 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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