Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | CP +220 CSUF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +3 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -3.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -5.1 (+2.1) | 131.1 (-26.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -4.7 (+1.7) | 131.3 (-26.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -4.2 (+1.2) | 131.7 (-26.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -4.4 (+1.4) | 131.2 (-26.2) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 78 CP |
| Dec 5, 2025 | CP 94 – 91 CSUF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CP 100 – 61 CSUF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CP 98 – 83 CSUF |
| Feb 23, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 7-13 |
| Home | 3-11 | 7-7 |
| Away | 0-16 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#330) | -3.9 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#322) | 0.08 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#323) | -0.17 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#340) | 0.522 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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