Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 177.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -115 CP -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -4.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -5.0 (-8.0) | 163.1 (+21.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -1.9 (-4.9) | 157.4 (+27.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -3.1 (-6.1) | 162.5 (+22.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -3.4 (-6.4) | 164.0 (+21.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 78 CP |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CP 100 – 61 CSUF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CP 98 – 83 CSUF |
| Feb 23, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CP |
| Jan 26, 2024 | CSUF 54 – 51 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 85.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#215) | -2.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#192) | -0.24 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#176) | -0.86 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.506 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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