Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | CP -1800 CSUF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +39 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CP -14.7 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -10.1 (+28.9) | 158.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -13.0 (+26.0) | 159.1 (+1.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CP -14.4 (+24.6) | 161.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -15.1 (+23.9) | 157.8 (+3.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 78 CP |
| Dec 5, 2025 | CP 94 – 91 CSUF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CP 98 – 83 CSUF |
| Feb 23, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CP |
| Jan 26, 2024 | CSUF 54 – 51 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-19 |
| Home | 9-5 | 4-11 |
| Away | 5-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#208) | -13.9 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#197) | -2.07 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#197) | -2.50 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#237) | 0.408 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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