Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | CP +105 CSUF -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +15 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -0.6 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -1.2 (-13.8) | 163.5 (+7.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -1.4 (-16.4) | 159.7 (+11.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -1.0 (-14.0) | 163.3 (+7.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -1.1 (-13.9) | 162.8 (+8.2) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2025 | CP 94 – 91 CSUF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CP 100 – 61 CSUF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CP 98 – 83 CSUF |
| Feb 23, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CP |
| Jan 26, 2024 | CSUF 54 – 51 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#263) | -2.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#242) | -0.42 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#249) | -0.29 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#250) | 0.482 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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