Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NE +115 UNCW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +23 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -2.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.3 (-20.7) | 142.7 (-11.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.4 (-19.6) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.1 (-19.9) | 142.3 (-11.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.6 (-20.4) | 143.4 (-12.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 72 NE |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UNCW 71 – 59 NE |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNCW 67 – 62 NE |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 68 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 3.4 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | 1.30 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | 1.37 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.582 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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