Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -6.2 (-1.2) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.2 (+0.8) | 136.4 (-7.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.1 (-1.1) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.9 (-0.9) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 72 NE |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UNCW 77 – 54 NE |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UNCW 71 – 59 NE |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 68 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#227) | -5.3 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#127) | -1.04 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#166) | -1.13 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#125) | 0.440 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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