Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -280 NE +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -6.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.7 (+3.3) | 136.2 (+15.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.8 (+1.2) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.1 (+2.9) | 136.0 (+16.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.6 (+3.4) | 136.3 (+15.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UNCW 77 – 54 NE |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UNCW 71 – 59 NE |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNCW 67 – 62 NE |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 68 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#162) | 0.11 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#161) | -0.09 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#158) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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