Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | NE -150 UNCW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -1.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -0.5 (-6.5) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -0.9 (-6.9) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.1 (-5.9) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.3 (-5.7) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 72 NE |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UNCW 77 – 54 NE |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UNCW 71 – 59 NE |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNCW 67 – 62 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#261) | -3.5 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#259) | 0.47 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#246) | -0.08 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#274) | 0.520 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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