Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -400 NE +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -10.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -8.6 (+3.4) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.8 (+3.2) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -10.0 (+2.0) | 131.8 (-1.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -9.5 (+2.5) | 134.1 (-4.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UNCW 80 – 72 NE |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UNCW 77 – 54 NE |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UNCW 67 – 62 NE |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UNCW 74 – 68 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#170) | -7.2 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#77) | -1.30 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#83) | -1.46 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#88) | 0.430 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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