Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -110 MTST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -0.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.4 (-7.6) | 135.6 (-3.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.7 (-7.3) | 137.1 (-5.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.7 (-7.3) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.0 (-7.0) | 136.4 (-4.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-24 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#302) | -4.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#293) | -0.60 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#294) | -0.70 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#308) | 0.455 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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