Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Big Sky Conference · The Nest · January 26, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SAC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money SAC -110 / MTST +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual MTST +8 132 Lost
Massey SAC -0.1 (-8.1) — —
Massey Totals — 136.8 (-4.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 49% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 46% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MTST -0.4 (-7.6) 135.6 (-3.6) 40% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MTST -0.7 (-7.3) 137.1 (-5.1) 48% ✓
Baseline ML MTST -0.7 (-7.3) 137.3 (-5.3) 43% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MTST -1.0 (-7.0) 136.4 (-4.4) 38% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 MTST 82 – 61 SAC
Jan 30, 2026 SAC 83 – 80 MTST
Mar 1, 2025 MTST 87 – 60 SAC
Jan 31, 2025 MTST 70 – 58 SAC
Mar 13, 2024 MTST 74 – 71 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC MTST
Overall 10-24 17-18
Conference 4-14 9-9
Home 6-8 10-7
Away 2-13 4-10
Neutral 2-3 3-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.2 73.9
Avg Pts Against 71.3 74.8
Massey -8.2 (#302) -4.6 (#254)
Bradley-Terry -1.32 (#293) -0.60 (#231)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.61 (#294) -0.70 (#229)
RPI 0.418 (#308) 0.455 (#260)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC MTST
FG% 42.2% 45.8%
3PT% 31.1% 32.8%
REB / G 35.4 28.9
OREB / G 11.1 6.0
AST / TO 0.76 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 52.7%
TOV% 23.4% 17.3%
ORB% 33.2% 18.8%
FT Rate 22.9% 23.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.3% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 14.2% 18.0%
DRB% 74.0% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 28.4%

Game Analysis

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