Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -300 UTU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -5.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -3.6 (+18.4) | 146.0 (-4.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -4.1 (+17.9) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.1 (+17.9) | 144.7 (-2.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.6 (+17.4) | 145.5 (-3.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#238) | -5.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#239) | -0.62 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#224) | -0.74 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#238) | 0.476 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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