I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Western Athletic Conference · William R. Johnson Coliseum · January 26, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -0.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money SFA +110 / GCU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual GCU +2 104 Lost
Massey GCU -2.7 (+0.7) — —
Massey Totals — 149.5 (-45.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 21% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 21% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GCU -2.5 (+0.5) 143.2 (-39.2) 41% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -2.3 (+0.3) 147.0 (-43.0) 38% ✓
Baseline ML GCU -2.3 (+0.3) 147.4 (-43.4) 44% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GCU -1.8 (-0.2) 148.1 (-44.1) 44% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 3, 2024 GCU 80 – 58 SFA
Feb 5, 2023 GCU 86 – 83 SFA
Jan 7, 2023 SFA 73 – 68 GCU
Jan 21, 2022 SFA 71 – 46 GCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA GCU
Overall 18-15 30-5
Conference 10-10 17-3
Home 10-5 16-0
Away 5-8 8-3
Neutral 3-2 5-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 77.8
Avg Pts Against 71.8 66.8
Massey 2.6 (#131) 8.9 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 0.40 (#135) 2.40 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.72 (#131) 2.79 (#27)
RPI 0.507 (#159) 0.599 (#35)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA GCU
FG% 44.8% 47.7%
3PT% 33.1% 33.9%
REB / G 37.0 38.2
OREB / G 12.6 11.6
AST / TO 0.72 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 53.7%
TOV% 23.0% 18.7%
ORB% 35.8% 35.3%
FT Rate 29.9% 34.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 23.3% 19.5%
DRB% 70.3% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 37.6% 24.5%

Game Analysis

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