Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -154 GCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -0.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.6 (+4.4) | 136.7 (+4.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.2 (+3.8) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.5 (+4.5) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.4 (+3.6) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2024 | GCU 80 – 58 SFA |
| Jan 26, 2024 | GCU 53 – 51 SFA |
| Feb 5, 2023 | GCU 86 – 83 SFA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | SFA 71 – 46 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#169) | 4.7 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#162) | 1.02 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#178) | 1.29 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#213) | 0.550 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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