What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
Western Athletic Conference · Global Credit Union Arena · February 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money GCU -163 / SFA +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total GCU win
Actual GCU +3 169 Won
Massey GCU -4.5 (-1.5)
Massey Totals 141.1 (+27.9)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 72%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -3.9 (-0.9) 141.7 (+27.3) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -3.3 (-0.3) 144.3 (+24.7) 67%
Baseline ML GCU -3.3 (-0.3) 145.0 (+24.0) 66%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -3.1 (-0.1) 142.8 (+26.2) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 3, 2024 GCU 8058 SFA
Jan 26, 2024 GCU 5351 SFA
Jan 7, 2023 SFA 7368 GCU
Jan 21, 2022 SFA 7146 GCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GCU SFA
Overall 24-12 19-13
Conference 11-7 11-7
Home 14-4 12-4
Away 6-5 6-5
Neutral 5-3 1-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 72.2 74.1
Avg Pts Against 69.1 72.7
Massey 3.6 (#113) 2.7 (#126)
Bradley-Terry 0.62 (#120) 0.54 (#125)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.70 (#122) 0.51 (#131)
RPI 0.532 (#115) 0.535 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors GCU SFA
FG% 43.1% 46.3%
3PT% 34.6% 38.9%
REB / G 36.5 32.8
OREB / G 11.2 10.7
AST / TO 0.91 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 52.0%
TOV% 19.1% 22.1%
ORB% 33.1% 32.2%
FT Rate 26.4% 27.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 24.9%
DRB% 69.0% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.7% 28.1%

Game Analysis

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