Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -163 SFA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.9 (-0.9) | 141.7 (+27.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.3 (-0.3) | 144.3 (+24.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -3.3 (-0.3) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.1 (-0.1) | 142.8 (+26.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2024 | GCU 80 – 58 SFA |
| Jan 26, 2024 | GCU 53 – 51 SFA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SFA 73 – 68 GCU |
| Jan 21, 2022 | SFA 71 – 46 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#113) | 2.7 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#120) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#122) | 0.51 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#115) | 0.535 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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