Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -600 SFA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -11.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.7 (+10.3) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.7 (+10.3) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.9 (+10.1) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -13.4 (+8.6) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2024 | GCU 53 – 51 SFA |
| Feb 5, 2023 | GCU 86 – 83 SFA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SFA 73 – 68 GCU |
| Jan 21, 2022 | SFA 71 – 46 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#65) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#28) | -0.04 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#34) | 0.26 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#23) | 0.491 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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