All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Western Athletic Conference · Global Credit Union Arena · March 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -10.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money GCU -600 / SFA +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total GCU win
Actual GCU +22 138 Won
Massey GCU -11.9 (+10.1)
Massey Totals 145.6 (-7.6)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 95%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -11.7 (+10.3) 141.7 (-3.7) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -11.7 (+10.3) 143.0 (-5.0) 87%
Baseline ML GCU -11.9 (+10.1) 142.2 (-4.2) 87%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -13.4 (+8.6) 142.8 (-4.8) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 26, 2024 GCU 5351 SFA
Feb 5, 2023 GCU 8683 SFA
Jan 7, 2023 SFA 7368 GCU
Jan 21, 2022 SFA 7146 GCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GCU SFA
Overall 30-5 18-15
Conference 17-3 10-10
Home 16-0 10-5
Away 8-3 5-8
Neutral 5-2 3-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.8 72.6
Avg Pts Against 66.8 71.8
Massey 8.8 (#65) 0.2 (#163)
Bradley-Terry 2.13 (#28) -0.04 (#169)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.47 (#34) 0.26 (#151)
RPI 0.602 (#23) 0.491 (#195)
Shooting & Four Factors GCU SFA
FG% 46.0% 44.0%
3PT% 34.5% 31.7%
REB / G 38.6 35.5
OREB / G 11.9 11.7
AST / TO 0.92 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 49.0%
TOV% 18.2% 22.4%
ORB% 35.1% 34.0%
FT Rate 33.2% 28.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.0% 49.0%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 23.0%
DRB% 71.8% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 34.3%

Game Analysis

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