Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +25 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -3.2 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -2.2 (+27.2) | 135.2 (-18.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.0 (+28.0) | 137.3 (-20.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.8 (+27.8) | 136.7 (-19.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.3 (+28.3) | 136.8 (-19.8) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2024 | GCU 80 – 58 SFA |
| Jan 26, 2024 | GCU 53 – 51 SFA |
| Feb 5, 2023 | GCU 86 – 83 SFA |
| Jan 7, 2023 | SFA 73 – 68 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#154) | 7.3 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#153) | 1.96 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#158) | 2.00 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#161) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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