Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +48 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -32.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -28.9 (+19.1) | 133.8 (-29.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -25.1 (+22.9) | 133.7 (-29.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -21.6 (+26.4) | 135.2 (-31.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -28.7 (+19.3) | 135.6 (-31.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SMC 72 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SMC 70 – 60 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SMC 84 – 43 PAC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | SMC 83 – 52 PAC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SMC 58 – 46 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 0-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 9-0 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L23 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 81.4 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#32) | -15.6 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#67) | -1.88 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#64) | -2.53 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#51) | 0.386 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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