Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | PAC +295 SMC -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -7.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -5.3 (-5.7) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -7.0 (-4.0) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -4.5 (-6.5) | 134.8 (-1.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.9 (-6.1) | 135.8 (-2.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | SMC 70 – 60 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SMC 84 – 43 PAC |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SMC 76 – 28 PAC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | SMC 83 – 52 PAC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SMC 58 – 46 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#108) | 14.9 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#106) | 2.51 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#99) | 3.35 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#110) | 0.626 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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