Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -265 PAC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +12 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -7.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -5.5 (+6.5) | 131.3 (-27.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.6 (+7.4) | 128.7 (-24.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.1 (+6.9) | 130.2 (-26.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.7 (+6.3) | 131.0 (-27.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SMC 72 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SMC 70 – 60 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SMC 84 – 43 PAC |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SMC 76 – 28 PAC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | SMC 83 – 52 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 6-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-3 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#68) | 0.96 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#73) | 0.97 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#58) | 0.540 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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