Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | PAC +1600 SMC -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +41 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -24.2 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -19.9 (-21.1) | 131.1 (-4.1) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -17.6 (-23.4) | 133.3 (-6.3) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.7 (-24.3) | 132.3 (-5.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -20.2 (-20.8) | 133.0 (-6.0) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SMC 72 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SMC 70 – 60 PAC |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SMC 76 – 28 PAC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | SMC 83 – 52 PAC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SMC 58 – 46 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 15-1 |
| Home | 5-12 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#353) | 13.1 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#336) | 1.87 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#340) | 2.22 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#337) | 0.590 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 26.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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