Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -5000 PAC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +31 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -20.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -17.5 (+13.5) | 139.5 (-4.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -20.6 (+10.4) | 139.6 (-4.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.7 (+14.3) | 141.9 (-6.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -17.5 (+13.5) | 142.6 (-7.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SMC 72 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SMC 70 – 60 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SMC 84 – 43 PAC |
| Jan 26, 2024 | SMC 76 – 28 PAC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | SMC 58 – 46 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-10 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#11) | -1.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#16) | -0.32 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#13) | -0.32 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#7) | 0.456 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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