Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -250 SUU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -6.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.5 (-8.5) | 144.1 (-1.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.5 (-8.5) | 146.6 (-3.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.5 (-8.5) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -5.5 (-8.5) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TAR 62 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SUU 106 – 105 TAR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TAR 75 – 58 SUU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#181) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#113) | -1.32 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#125) | -1.19 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#87) | 0.426 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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