Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -600 JAX +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -9.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -7.8 (+8.2) | 148.1 (-14.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -8.0 (+8.0) | 148.1 (-14.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -8.6 (+7.4) | 145.9 (-11.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -7.9 (+8.1) | 145.9 (-11.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JAX 81 – 76 EKU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | JAX 78 – 67 EKU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | JAX 59 – 55 EKU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JAX 82 – 75 EKU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | JAX 67 – 65 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#231) | -9.4 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#246) | -0.76 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#251) | -1.05 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#245) | 0.462 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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