Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -150 EKU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -2.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -2.1 (+8.9) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -2.4 (+8.6) | 144.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.4 (+8.6) | 144.1 (+0.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -2.3 (+8.7) | 144.7 (+0.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JAX 81 – 76 EKU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | JAX 59 – 55 EKU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JAX 82 – 75 EKU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | JAX 67 – 65 EKU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | EKU 75 – 59 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -1.2 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#169) | -0.15 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#162) | 0.00 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#147) | 0.508 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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