Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -140 JAX +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -2.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -1.7 (-8.7) | 142.4 (+14.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -0.7 (-7.7) | 141.9 (+15.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -0.1 (-7.1) | 142.4 (+14.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -0.5 (-7.5) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JAX 81 – 76 EKU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | JAX 78 – 67 EKU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | JAX 59 – 55 EKU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | JAX 67 – 65 EKU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | EKU 75 – 59 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#208) | -0.9 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#215) | 0.06 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#218) | 0.48 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#205) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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