Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–35 on winners spread MAE 8.9 125 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky -5.1 137.7 29% 78–87 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +1.9 145.7 59% 59–90 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +4.7 137.4 69% 55–74 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +0.4 158.0 51% 83–88 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia -8.3 150.9 19% 81–66 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +4.4 143.4 68% 65–50 ✗
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.3 140.9 69% 60–70 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +9.8 137.7 86% 69–85 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +5.2 143.5 73% 74–83 ✓
Rider @ Siena +4.0 136.5 67% 74–60 ✗
Iona @ Canisius -11.5 145.4 15% 70–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara +3.6 135.4 67% 74–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Monmouth +5.6 139.1 75% 56–59 ✓
Toledo @ Ball State -9.5 155.5 18% 83–93 ✗
San Diego State @ Colorado State +2.0 131.7 62% 57–58 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State +10.3 133.8 84% 56–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +5.0 134.1 70% 74–85 ✓
Illinois @ Indiana +1.3 139.0 57% 74–57 ✗
St. John's @ Butler -1.6 140.2 47% 75–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State -0.6 149.0 50% 68–60 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +1.6 135.6 57% 55–64 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -9.0 127.7 18% 66–49 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +11.9 137.8 87% 68–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +13.3 138.7 88% 58–56 ✗
Auburn @ Georgia -14.8 155.5 14% 74–72 ✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina -5.4 137.5 31% 81–57 ✓
Holy Cross @ Army +9.1 139.6 82% 69–65 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner +11.6 145.7 87% 64–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +2.4 135.6 61% 82–91 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell -7.5 137.7 23% 78–67 ✓
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +3.8 138.5 67% 69–72 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -0.2 154.7 49% 93–107 ✗
Northwestern @ Nebraska -4.4 151.5 30% 87–63 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -3.2 138.7 34% 60–53 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas +5.0 122.4 67% 41–63 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +9.8 142.5 83% 69–65 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette +4.1 142.5 68% 72–74 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +5.3 137.0 75% 58–67 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulane +6.2 144.7 76% 66–86 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh -3.1 141.0 38% 80–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis +1.9 130.6 57% 65–64 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Gardner-Webb +9.7 134.8 81% 62–69 ✓
Louisville @ Syracuse +5.5 149.9 72% 69–92 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -3.3 143.5 38% 64–69 ✗
Maine @ Binghamton +11.6 135.1 87% 60–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ UIC -0.1 146.9 50% 66–64 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia State -2.4 140.2 41% 62–69 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -10.1 130.6 17% 76–41 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +6.7 143.4 77% 78–67 ✗
George Mason @ La Salle -5.7 140.7 26% 78–83 ✗
Dayton @ Saint Louis +4.2 137.8 68% 61–72 ✓
Davidson @ George Washington -9.1 143.3 19% 78–73 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +8.0 144.5 81% 65–73 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota +1.8 153.9 59% 85–92 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +7.1 144.2 77% 60–62 ✓
James Madison @ Hofstra +7.7 155.3 80% 78–85 ✓
Towson @ Northeastern -7.4 130.0 21% 53–58 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ohio +16.8 143.8 91% 64–77 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +7.0 135.9 79% 71–90 ✓
Michigan @ Purdue +11.0 153.9 87% 76–82 ✓
UTEP @ Rice +2.7 143.2 63% 72–70 ✗
Utah Tech @ Stephen F. Austin +10.3 143.3 86% 52–81 ✓
Utah Valley @ Sam Houston +0.7 134.0 54% 57–54 ✗
Notre Dame @ NC State -0.9 144.3 44% 69–57 ✓
UL Monroe @ Little Rock -0.6 143.1 46% 75–72 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +3.4 142.6 66% 80–72 ✗
Ole Miss @ Florida +7.0 134.2 76% 57–62 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas +2.3 154.1 62% 59–83 ✓
Michigan State @ Rutgers -5.3 132.5 28% 63–84 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +4.3 141.5 68% 68–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +6.5 142.5 76% 64–72 ✓
Colgate @ American University -9.0 137.0 19% 86–68 ✓
Washington State @ California -6.0 131.7 26% 68–64 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +4.8 141.6 70% 48–84 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman -1.0 139.0 44% 67–68 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +10.9 146.6 82% 75–97 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic +14.3 138.5 88% 57–84 ✓
Marshall @ Charlotte +3.9 147.4 69% 64–88 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -3.6 151.0 33% 74–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Abilene Christian +9.5 156.2 84% 66–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn +1.7 145.9 60% 66–62 ✗
Bryant @ Mount St. Mary's +0.9 144.1 57% 62–61 ✗
Campbell @ South Carolina Upstate +2.4 139.7 59% 80–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Hartford +0.8 135.0 55% 71–52 ✗
Troy @ Georgia Southern +0.8 133.8 54% 61–52 ✗
Duquesne @ VCU +11.1 129.5 86% 62–71 ✓
Charleston @ Elon -2.4 150.2 40% 66–64 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary -5.3 139.4 25% 92–70 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +10.1 137.3 84% 70–66 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas -1.4 152.8 43% 75–79 ✗
Austin Peay @ Morehead State +9.3 135.0 83% 52–77 ✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +3.9 141.0 67% 69–61 ✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M -4.5 133.7 33% 67–55 ✓
North Florida @ North Alabama +2.3 135.8 61% 71–58 ✗
Buffalo @ Central Michigan -9.7 149.2 17% 74–54 ✓
USC @ Arizona +12.4 148.5 86% 63–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -9.8 132.3 15% 69–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +11.2 141.9 87% 56–63 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -1.7 130.3 41% 56–55 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Incarnate Word -6.9 144.5 24% 70–78 ✗
Northwestern State @ McNeese +4.0 155.0 67% 84–93 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +1.2 128.1 52% 78–70 ✗
Miami @ Virginia +0.5 129.8 54% 58–71 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb -0.0 156.1 49% 77–68 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +2.4 138.9 65% 58–67 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green +4.2 150.9 69% 65–87 ✓
Winthrop @ Hampton -5.8 143.4 24% 69–57 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -11.5 142.1 14% 69–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State +5.8 132.1 72% 58–64 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -1.4 151.4 42% 87–67 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +7.3 134.2 78% 49–51 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt -5.0 132.3 27% 66–75 ✗
SMU @ Wichita State +0.6 136.5 50% 57–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Colorado +8.8 138.8 82% 63–86 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +19.1 128.9 90% 45–69 ✓
Seattle U @ New Mexico State +6.3 139.9 74% 64–79 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +2.5 154.5 65% 73–68 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +4.6 138.3 69% 60–62 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Texas State +2.5 135.7 63% 64–69 ✓
App State @ UT Arlington +0.1 131.7 46% 70–61 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Drake +6.3 149.2 74% 74–69 ✗
UNLV @ Utah State +9.2 140.4 81% 75–90 ✓
San José State @ Boise State +16.2 128.8 90% 60–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +13.7 133.9 88% 64–73 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -7.0 139.8 23% 70–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.