Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -8.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -6.7 (+0.7) | 136.3 (-2.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -7.0 (+1.0) | 139.8 (-5.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -7.1 (+1.1) | 139.5 (-5.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -7.4 (+1.4) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-17 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#354) | -4.9 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#345) | -1.11 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#352) | -1.27 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#330) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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