Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.9 (-0.9) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.8 (-0.8) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.5 (-0.5) | 137.4 (+3.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.6 (-0.6) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | FOR 68 – 64 JOES |
| Mar 1, 2025 | JOES 90 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 2, 2024 | JOES 82 – 69 FOR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | FOR 66 – 54 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#142) | -0.4 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#184) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#172) | -0.07 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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