Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +320 JOES -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +14 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -7.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -6.4 (-7.6) | 148.9 (+17.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -7.0 (-7.0) | 146.6 (+19.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -7.3 (-6.7) | 147.5 (+18.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -7.1 (-6.9) | 147.6 (+18.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | FOR 68 – 64 JOES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | JOES 82 – 69 FOR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | FOR 66 – 54 JOES |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JOES 72 – 69 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#223) | 7.3 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#228) | 0.89 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#227) | 1.19 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#226) | 0.553 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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