Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -400 FOR +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -9.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -9.9 (+3.1) | 146.2 (+4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -7.2 (+5.8) | 147.0 (+4.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.9 (+4.1) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.7 (+4.3) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | FOR 68 – 64 JOES |
| Mar 1, 2025 | JOES 90 – 76 FOR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | FOR 66 – 54 JOES |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JOES 72 – 69 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#97) | -1.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#109) | -0.23 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#112) | -0.44 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#108) | 0.485 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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