Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -150 JOES +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -5.7 (+6.3) | 147.8 (-27.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.7 (+6.3) | 146.7 (-26.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.5 (+6.5) | 147.4 (-27.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -5.7 (+6.3) | 147.8 (-27.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | FOR 68 – 64 JOES |
| Mar 1, 2025 | JOES 90 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 2, 2024 | JOES 82 – 69 FOR |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JOES 72 – 69 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#190) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#122) | -1.12 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#137) | -1.50 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#143) | 0.454 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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