Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -192 FOR +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -3.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.5 (-8.5) | 134.3 (-2.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.5 (-7.5) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.6 (-7.6) | 131.7 (+0.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.1 (-7.1) | 131.9 (+0.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | JOES 90 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 2, 2024 | JOES 82 – 69 FOR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | FOR 66 – 54 JOES |
| Feb 5, 2022 | JOES 72 – 69 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#111) | -0.93 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#129) | -0.80 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#92) | 0.468 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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