Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | LAS +110 GMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -6.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.7 (+10.7) | 139.9 (+21.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.7 (+10.7) | 140.7 (+20.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.5 (+10.5) | 139.5 (+21.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.3 (+10.3) | 141.2 (+19.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GMU 69 – 62 LAS |
| Jan 3, 2024 | GMU 77 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GMU 70 – 66 LAS |
| Feb 27, 2021 | GMU 89 – 54 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#245) | 5.2 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#285) | 0.61 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#286) | 0.83 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#295) | 0.532 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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