Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -275 LAS +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +35 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -5.3 (+29.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.7 (+29.3) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.4 (+30.6) | 138.9 (+4.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.1 (+29.9) | 143.0 (+0.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.7 (+29.3) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GMU 69 – 62 LAS |
| Jan 3, 2024 | GMU 77 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GMU 70 – 66 LAS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | LAS 83 – 78 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#133) | -0.9 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | -0.06 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#132) | -0.00 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.496 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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