Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -188 LAS +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.2 (-1.2) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.8 (-1.8) | 138.7 (-2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.9 (-0.9) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.7 (-0.7) | 138.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GMU 69 – 62 LAS |
| Jan 3, 2024 | GMU 77 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | LAS 83 – 78 GMU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | GMU 89 – 54 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -3.0 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#153) | -0.17 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#148) | -0.48 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.498 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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