Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | LAS +148 GMU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -3.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.4 (-11.6) | 141.4 (-2.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.1 (-11.9) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.9 (-12.1) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.6 (-11.4) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GMU 69 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GMU 70 – 66 LAS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | LAS 83 – 78 GMU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | GMU 89 – 54 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#216) | 5.1 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#173) | 2.08 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#208) | 2.33 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#234) | 0.578 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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