Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -900 LAS +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -11.4 (-4.4) | 134.5 (-3.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -12.0 (-5.0) | 131.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -11.3 (-4.3) | 131.8 (-0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -11.7 (-4.7) | 133.5 (-2.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Jan 3, 2024 | GMU 77 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GMU 70 – 66 LAS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | LAS 83 – 78 GMU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | GMU 89 – 54 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#83) | -4.3 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#62) | -0.47 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#60) | -0.79 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#33) | 0.484 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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