And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Atlantic 10 Conference · EagleBank Arena · March 6, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread GMU -12.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money GMU -900 / LAS +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total GMU win
Actual GMU +7 131 Won
Massey GMU -14.4 (-7.4)
Massey Totals 135.2 (-4.2)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML GMU -12.0 (-5.0) 131.9 (-0.9) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML GMU -11.3 (-4.3) 131.8 (-0.8) 86%
Baseline ML GMU -11.7 (-4.7) 133.5 (-2.5) 86%
Baseline Plus ML GMU -11.4 (-4.4) 134.5 (-3.5) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 GMU 8075 LAS
Jan 3, 2024 GMU 7762 LAS
Feb 18, 2023 GMU 7066 LAS
Feb 5, 2022 LAS 8378 GMU
Feb 27, 2021 GMU 8954 LAS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GMU LAS
Overall 27-9 14-19
Conference 15-3 5-13
Home 18-2 10-5
Away 7-6 2-10
Neutral 2-1 2-4
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 70.9
Avg Pts Against 64.0 75.5
Massey 6.8 (#83) -4.3 (#236)
Bradley-Terry 1.62 (#62) -0.47 (#214)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.13 (#60) -0.79 (#230)
RPI 0.594 (#33) 0.484 (#211)
Shooting & Four Factors GMU LAS
FG% 45.1% 40.3%
3PT% 34.4% 31.1%
REB / G 37.3 36.4
OREB / G 10.1 12.0
AST / TO 0.93 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 45.6%
TOV% 20.0% 15.3%
ORB% 31.9% 30.6%
FT Rate 30.4% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.9% 53.2%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 16.9%
DRB% 71.7% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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