Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -14.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -11.1 (-2.1) | 148.2 (-13.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -12.4 (-3.4) | 148.5 (-13.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -12.4 (-3.4) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -11.9 (-2.9) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#2) | 11.8 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#3) | 2.49 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#3) | 2.86 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#9) | 0.593 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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