Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.4 (+9.4) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.0 (+8.0) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.2 (+10.2) | 141.0 (-10.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.5 (+9.5) | 139.9 (-8.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USA 74 – 65 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#238) | 0.68 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#213) | 0.93 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#254) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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