Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | USA -125 GAST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | USA -11.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -7.3 (+1.7) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -9.6 (-0.6) | 148.9 (-9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -9.8 (-0.8) | 148.8 (-9.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -8.7 (+0.3) | 148.4 (-9.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | -5.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#150) | -0.87 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#149) | -0.82 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#113) | 0.450 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.