Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +175 USA -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +26 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -6.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.0 (-18.0) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.2 (-20.8) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.0 (-19.0) | 135.4 (-7.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -7.2 (-18.8) | 137.5 (-9.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USA 74 – 65 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#309) | 1.9 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#314) | 0.09 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#316) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#293) | 0.485 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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