Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USA -238 GAST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | USA -7.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.0 (-4.0) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.9 (-4.9) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.0 (-4.0) | 139.7 (-3.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.3 (-3.3) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USA 74 – 65 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#219) | -7.8 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#146) | -0.98 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#156) | -1.37 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#161) | 0.445 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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